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Oscar Forecast, Part 1: The Early Birds

Oscar season metformin 1000 mg side effects is upon us. It’s the time of the year when every studio releases the films they’re gambling on being contenders for award night on February 27, 2011. While Oscar season (September-December) doesn’t completely exclude the candidacy of films released earlier in the year, it’s usually hard for said films to stay relevant in the minds of Oscar voters. It’s all about momentum, and rarely metformin side effects in men do films released early on carry through and light a fire of remembrance to end up on critics’ end of the year Top 10 lists. We’ve seen films completely break this mold, and some fall horrible victim to it.

Two glaring examples for me are Silence of the Lambs (1991) and Zodiac (2007). Lambs was released on February 14th and Zodiac on March 2nd. Lambs went on to become one of only a few to ever sweep the big five (Actor/Actress, Director, Writer, Picture) at the awards, while Zodiac fell completely into obscurity and didn’t receive a single nomination. I thought it should have been right up there with Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood in the consideration, and apparently so did all the critics as it scored #4 in list mentions/scores, but no one cares what either of us think, which is clearly why the voters went with the extremely forgettable No Country For Old Men. I’ve got lots of opinions on the Oscars, and some theories, but lets head into this season where I’ll look at everything we could safely assume will be in the conversation. Part 1 will cover those early birds that might have a chance at being in the mix, with Part 2 to go through the jump-off months of Oscar season with September & October, and Part 3 to close out the forecast with November & December.

The Early Birds

Shutter Island - Paramount, February 19th

Shutter’s got Silence of the Lambs written all over it. I’m not saying it’s gonna win the Big 5, not even close, but this is a film that critics drooled over and the Oscar voters will follow suit. Definitely will be breaking the mold, and I’d almost call it a lock for a Best Picture nomination, but we’ll get to that at the end. We might be looking at a big nomination getter here.

What to Watch For: Director (Martin Scorsese), Writer (Laeta Kalogridis), Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Ben Kingsley & Jackie Earle Haley), Cinematography (Robert Richardson), Editing (Thelma Schoonmaker), Production Design (Dante Ferretti) and VFX (Rob Legato)

Mother - Magnolia Pictures, March 12th

Bong Joon-ho is one of my favorite directors right now. The Host is a freaking awesome thrill ride and Memories of Murder becomes closer and closer to my all-time favorites with every viewing. He’s an incredibly talented director and Mother reminds us of just that. It’s unlikely that we’ll see much of a splash here, and maybe not even a Foreign Film nomination, but Kim Hye-ja’s leading character of the mother is phenomenal and could get some recognition. It also scored a 95% on the Rotten Tomatoes meter from 104 reviews. Impressive.

What to Watch For: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Actress (Kim Hye-ja)

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - Music Box Films, March 19th

This series has taken over the literary world, and with some good campaigning and momentum by the US distributor, star Noomi Rapace could take over the Best Actress category at the Oscars. It’s doubtful you’ll see anything else come from Tattoo, but Rapace can definitely be a contender here. And yes, she’s eligible.

What to Watch For: Best Actress (Noomi Rapace)

Exit Through The Gift Shop - Producers Distribution Agency, April 16th

It’s a pipe dream to think this documentary could be one of the Ten, but this is my forecast, and these are my dreams. Without question this film is in my personal Top 10 of the year. Banksy and his story here are astoundingly fascinating and I dare anyone to say otherwise after a viewing. At the very least, I’m going to be livid (stating the inevitable) come February 27th if this doesn’t win Best Documentary.

What to Watch For: Best Documentary (Banksy)

Please Give - Sony Classics, April 30th

I really liked this film. I think it’s better than what will likely turn out to be the indie favorite come Oscar night, to be discussed below. This is another one that won’t see much attention, if any, but I can always hope for the heartfelt performance from Catherine Keener, one of the most sincere actresses working today, and the hilarious Ann Morgan Guilbert playing Andra. Maybe some Nicole Holofcener writing love?

What to Watch For: Best Actress (Catherine Keener), Best Supporting Actress (Ann Morgan Guilbert) and Best Original Screenplay (Nicole Holofcener)

Micmacs - Sony Classics, May 28th

Long ago (2001), Jean-Pierre Jeunet exploded onto scene with the masterpiece that is Amélie. It’s highly doubtful we’ll see even near that success with Micmacs, but it’s wildly fun and entertaining in much the same vein. Definitely check it out if you’re able.

What to Watch For: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Cinematography (Tetsuo Nagata)

Winter’s Bone - Roadside Attractions, June 11th

A Sundance lab creation, Bone has for some reason captured the attention of the indie-loving critics crowd, especially some of the performances and “gritty realism.” Personally, I don’t really see the big deal. While it did have some solid performances, I just don’t see why people loved it so much. My indifference was similar to that of No Country for Old Men, where the story just did nothing for me. That being said, it’s probably going to be on A LOT of Top 10 lists, and could even be the indie slot in the Ten. Take that to the bank.

What to Watch For: Best Picture, Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Best Actor (John Hawkes), Best Adapted Screenplay (Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini)

Toy Story 3 - Disney/Pixar, June 18th

Another year, another Best Animated Feature win for Pixar. TS3 will surely be a player in the Ten and might get some score attention as well.

What to Watch For: Best Picture, Best Animated Film, Best Original Score (Randy Newman)

Restrepo - National Geographic Entertainment, June 25th

I don’t know much about this film, except that it’s a documentary about war, and it’s likely to be a top contender to break my Exit Through The Gift Shop-for-Best-Documentary heart. It’ll happen. I’m already bracing for impact.

What to Watch For: Best Documentary

The Kids Are All Right - Focus Features, July 9th

Another Sundance kid. I reviewed this one a couple weeks ago. I like Please Give better, but Kids will likely get all the indie attention come awards season. There’s some good performances here, and good writing, and Oscar bait galore because of the subject matter. Could be a big player for a small film.

What to Watch For: Best Picture, Best Actress (Annette Bening & Julianne Moore), Best Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Best Original Screenplay (Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg)

Inception - Warner Brothers, July 16th

We can likely thank (or not) Christopher Nolan for the creation of the Ten as a result of The Dark Knight snubs. I’m not really a fan of the Ten. Being part of the Ten to me seems like a slap in the face consolation prize. Last year it was so blatantly obvious which films were actually contenders and which didn’t belong. I don’t see how it’ll be much different this year. But given that the expansion was a total cop-out to try and bring in more viewers, and thus get better ratings, I’d bet my life (and all of yours) that Inception will be nominated for Best Picture this year. Jason and myself both drooled all over Inception. Hopefully the Academy will follow suit.

What to Watch For: Best Picture, Best Director (Christopher Nolan), Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Original Screenplay (Christopher Nolan), Best Cinematography (Wally Pfister), Best Original Score (Hans Zimmer), Best Editing (Lee Smith)

Animal Kingdom - Sony Classics, August 13th


I’m not sure what this could be in play for outside of Foreign Film, but it’s getting a lot of great reviews. Personally the film didn’t do that much to me. I just felt it was severely lacking context for any of the drama at the heart of the film’s tension, as well as a good relationship between the main character and his girlfriend. Just sort of fell flat, but I still did enjoy it. Just not seeing the craze everyone else is. Good acting all around though.

What to Watch For: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Supporting Actress (Jacki Weaver)

The Tillman StoryThe Weinstein Co., August 20th

Documentary about the story of Pat Tillman, former NFL player who left the Arizona Cardinals to serve our country in the military. He was killed in action by way of friendly fire, but the military tried to cover it up and lied to his family about what really happened.

What to Watch For: Best Documentary

I think we’ll stop there, because the first film that looks and feels like an Oscar contender started the “season” opens today, September 1st. Check back for part 2 of my forecast coming next week looking ahead at all the Oscar hopefuls to come.

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